Disclaimer: This is based on publicly available facts & opinions, I do not claim to be an expert on the subject. Some parts maybe AI generated.
Does the Pakistani economy feel stable to you? We’re told the rupee is holding steady – we have a current account surplus for the first time in 14 years – things are under control.
But when you struggle to get dollars for travel, when import-dependent businesses complain of shortages, and when the price of everything keeps climbing, it’s hard not to feel a disconnect. What if the stability we’re being sold is a carefully constructed illusion? What if it’s all a mirage, built on a lie so massive it’s almost unbelievable?
An analysis of publicly available data suggests a deception is underway, and at its heart is a phantom $11 billion. This isn’t a conspiracy theory; it’s a conclusion drawn from unforgiving mathematics.
The Glitch That Wasn’t
It all starts with a number the IMF recently uncovered: $11 billion in underreported imports over the last two fiscal years. Officials brushed this off as a “technical glitch”—a simple database error.
But this is no glitch. It’s the key to understanding everything.
Think of it like this: You tell your family you saved PKR 20,000 this month, and everyone celebrates. But you conveniently forgot to mention the PKR 50,000 you secretly put on a credit card. Are you really saving money?
That’s what’s happening on a national scale. Pakistan celebrated a $2.1 billion current account surplus. But if you add back the $5-6 billion in hidden imports per year, that celebrated surplus instantly transforms into a terrifying $3-4 billion deficit. The official narrative collapses. The “good news” was calculated using falsified data.
The Two-Faced Rupee
This brings us to the second part of the illusion: the stable rupee. The government and State Bank have moved heaven and earth to keep the dollar at around PKR 283. How?
- Massive Interventions: The State Bank burned through an estimated $9 billion in nine months, buying rupees to artificially prop up its value.
- Intimidation: We’ve all heard the stories. Security forces “meeting” with currency dealers and raiding exchange companies to force the rate down.
This explains why there are two realities: the “official” interbank rate of 283, and the real open market rate that is persistently higher. The official rate isn’t set by the market; it’s a number defended by force and unsustainable spending. It’s a fiction.
How the Trick is Done: The Shadow System
So, if $11 billion in extra goods physically arrived at our ports, where did the dollars to pay for them come from? And why didn’t these payments show up in the State Bank’s data?
This is the architecture of the deception:
- Invisible Imports: Customs allegedly creates special categories for certain goods, allowing them to enter the country without being recorded in official trade statistics.
- Invisible Payments: Importers use hawala/hundi networks and other underground markets to pay their suppliers. Billions of dollars flow out of Pakistan, completely bypassing the official banking system.
The result? The State Bank’s official data shows a healthy reserve level and a stable currency, because the real drainage of dollars is happening in the shadows. The official market is a carefully staged performance for the IMF and the public, while the real market is starved of dollars.
The Cracks Are Starting to Show
You can’t defy economic gravity forever. The lie is becoming too big to hide. The data from September 2025 shows reality is breaking through the fiction:
- The trade deficit exploded by 46% in a single month.
- Exports crashed by nearly 12%.
The system is flashing red. The interventions required to keep the rupee at 283 are exceeding our capacity by over 150% each month. This cannot last.
When this house of cards finally collapses, the adjustment will be catastrophic, amplified by the layers of deception:
- The rupee’s true value will reassert itself, likely moving to 320-350 against the dollar—a massive, overnight devaluation.
- Export sectors, which relied on the hidden subsidies of this system, will face a crisis.
- The $11 billion in hidden obligations will suddenly become an immediate financing emergency.
Read more about other issues facing Pakistan.
A Coordinated Deception
This isn’t the work of a few rogue officials. The analysis suggests a systematic, coordinated effort across our most powerful institutions: Customs hiding imports, the State Bank manufacturing a stable rupee, the Finance Ministry calculating phantom surpluses, and the security apparatus enforcing compliance.
The question isn’t whether this seems too elaborate. The question is whether any other explanation fits the documented facts. The numbers don’t lie.
This sophisticated deception may have bought a few years of artificial stability, but it has guaranteed a far more painful future. The cost will not be borne by those who constructed this mirage. It will be borne by ordinary Pakistani citizens, who have been denied the truth and will be left to pay the price of the inevitable, brutal correction.
The only question left is: when?